Australian GP – Preview. The first race of the season is always full of great opportunities for a successful punt, but it’s just as possible to fall flat on your face, whatever happens, it is the most anticipated race of the season. The Melbourne track is not a great race track, not many overtaking opportunities and the race can be a bit processional, but it usually throws up drama and a few surprises. Last season Melbourne was the third race of the season which took away some of its usual mystery, however we had the sight of a Toyota in 3rd place and Scott Speed crossing the line 8th in the Torro Rosso (later penalised 25 seconds for overtaking under yellows). With the return to being the opening race of the season the extra spice of the unknown returns. The race is historically a high attrition rate race, it finds out the cars that come with any mechanical weakness. The track itself is not easy, lots of heavy braking before slow corners is a major feature, so you usually see at least one car out with brake problems. The gear box also gets a good workout and it’s normal to lose a car with box failure. With a few teams bringing in new seam-less shift gear systems, any weakness there could be exposed, bad news for BMW Sauber who have been plagued with this problem through the winter. Any cars that are not stable under braking will struggle to set a good lap time, so that is bad news for Honda and Toyota who have been struggling in testing with this problem. The biggest cause of retirement remains the good old fashioned accident, 5 cars out in 2006, 2 in 2005, 1 in 2004 and 3 in 2003. The first lap is particularly tricky with the cars trying to gain position on the narrow track with tight corners, get your braking a little too late and it is very easy to hit the car in front. So to succeed in Melbourne you need to be fast of course, have shown rock solid reliability in testing and have a well balanced car especially under braking. A cool headed driver is another big plus. Ferrari tick most of the right boxes, although Massa has made plenty of mistakes here in the past, he failed to get to end of the 1st lap last year, so it will be interesting to see how he gets on this time. Raikkonen can also make the odd error, but usually he can be relied on to stay out of trouble and has 5 finishes from 6 starts and the one failure was mechanical. The Flying Finn does have to overcome his problem of finding the limits of the Bridgestone tyres and this is a track that doesn’t forgive to many mistakes. Favourites yes, but rock solid? Not quite. McLaren might be a little off Ferrari’s pace but should be closer than in the Bahrain test as this stop/start track will not flatter the long wheelbase Ferrari. Of course McLarens great weakness has been reliability and this will be the acid test as to whether Alonso has backed the right horse in choosing McLaren over Renault. In recent years they have been pretty good at getting the cars home in Melbourne and winter testing has seen much better reliability than the same time last year. Alonso’s class will allow him to take the fight to Ferrari, but he won’t start favourite. BMW Sauber appear to have the pace over a lap to match the top two teams, but reliability over longer runs has been poor. It’s hard to back a car with doubts about its chance of lasting the distance, but in qualifying BMW Sauber have to be considered. Kubica is the name on everyone’s lips when talking about BMW, but Heidfeld creamed him in 5 of their 6 qualifying sessions last season. Worth a modest interest at a reasonable price. 1 point e/w Nick Heidfeld to set fastest qualifying time @ 20/1 with Ladbrokes. won 3 points The midfield battle is always hard to call and this season is no different, but there could be some value in the Williams of Wurz and Rosberg to finish in the points. With reliability doubts about BMW, Toyota and Red Bull and performance doubts about Honda, Red Bull and Toyota, there could be an opening for one or even both Williams to finish in the top 8. The team had a nightmare in 2006, but did score a double points finish in the opening race and Webber was heading for a podium at Melbourne before the gremlins took him out. I’m still not convinced about how good Rosberg is, clearly very fast but perhaps makes too many mistakes. Wurz I am a fan of, and while he has been away from racing for a long while he knows the car, the tyres, the team and the track very well. Testing has been encouraging for Williams and with decent pace and reliability both should be in with a decent chance of points. The price does look too big on both drivers and this is team who have scored 28 points here in the last 5 seasons. Ok. They are a team who have been on a downward path, but it is no Mickey Mouse outfit. 3 points Wurz to finish in the points @ 7/2 with Stan James, Skybet, UKBetting lost 3 points 3 points Rosberg to finish in the points @ 4/1 with Stan James. won 12 points |
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