Australian GP – Preview. Yes it really was five months since the last race, where did the time go? You know you are getting old when the passage of time speeds up. Speed is of the essence this weekend when the cars finally stop testing and start competing. Any winter smoke screens will be blown away and clearer picture of the form for 2008 will begin to be revealed. There has been much speculation over the winter about how the new regulations banning traction control and engine braking will affect the racing. The drivers have now had plenty of testing with the new systems and basically say that it will make very little difference to how the races will pan out. There will not be any sudden improvement in the number of overtaking opportunities and to the naked eye the cars behaviour will look much the same. However the driver will now play a greater role in how the cars perform and mistakes will be punished to a greater degree than we have seen for some time. The driver will have to get his braking spot on and apply the power out of slow corners in a smooth fashion to avoid wheel spin. On many of the tracks this will not be a major issue but I think Melbourne is a track that the drivers really will notice the difference. It is very much a ‘point and squirt’ track, fast straight sectors followed by slow corners. There are seven corners taken in first or 2nd gear and that is where the hard braking into and traction out of the corners will really test the drivers. For the first time in years the driver will no long just be able to stand on the brakes and not worry about locking the rear wheels and then flooring the throttle knowing that the TC would prevent any wheel spin. This year, a great deal more finesse will be required to be quick around Albert Park. The weather will not be a problem for punters this weekend as all the forecasters agree that it will be hot and mostly sunny. Low humidity should ensure that the heat will not trigger any thunderstorms and the only potential problem is the heat, with air temperatures in the mid thirties and the track temperature even hotter. This may well affect the tyre wear and there will be even more emphasis on looking after the rear tyres than normal. Cars and drivers that can do this should have an advantage, while any cars that struggle to get heat into their tyres for qualifying will happy with the hot conditions. This all sounds like good news for the reigning Champion. All through the winter Raikkonen has been smooth round every track in testing and singing the praises of the traction of his Ferrari. These new regulations suit Kimi just fine. Perhaps one area that McLaren seem to have an edge over Ferrari is one lap pace as they can get the tyres up to temperature more quickly, but with the track likely to very hot, that should negate any advantage held by McLaren. The fact that the Ferrari is said to be very kind on its rear tyres will be very useful over a race distance in any conditions, but more so in the heat of Melbourne. Last season Raikkonen had a dream debut for Ferrari scoring the holy trinity of pole position, fastest lap and race win. Of course that was with a car that was using an illegal flexible floor and had a big pace advantage over their nearest rivals. The gap is smaller this time and it will be harder for Raikkonen, but he does look the most likely winner. 4 points Raikkonen to win the GP @ 11/8 with Ladbrokes, BlueSq, VCBet. lost 4 points Qualifying is always harder to call as the fuel loads carried plays a big part. This year sees the qualifying format changing again. The Q3 session will now only be 10 minutes long and the cars will have to start the race with the same amount of fuel that they finish the session with. That will see the end of the ‘fuel burn’ nonsense and means that the drivers that are going for pole or high grid position will be going low with a short first stint and perhaps an extra stop. This could potentially throw up a surprise if a team took a gamble on there being an early safety car deployment and with it a chance to then take on more fuel. This tactic was employed by Heidfeld last year as BMW put its two drivers on different strategies for just that eventuality. The low fuel load allowed him to take third on the grid. Of course the BMW was the third best car last year and he only made up two places by going low even with five laps less fuel. Most teams are very conservative on strategy and any ‘surprise’ could only come from a pretty competitive car anyway. Just like last year, it looks like the pole position will always be a fight between the McLaren and Ferrari drivers with only occasional second row appearances by another manufacturer, unless the weather throws a spanner in the works. There have been four different pole sitters in Melbourne in the last four years and there is no need to rush into a bet just yet. Two bookmakers have opened a ‘without Ferrari and McLaren’ market and there does look to be a decent price about Rosberg. The midfield looks to be very competitive indeed but with the impressive winter pace of the Williams and the nature of the track looking to favour well balanced cars with good traction, Rosberg must be a realistic contender for best of the rest. The Williams is said to be very kind to its tyres in long runs so should handle the hot conditions well. He was third in this market last season and this year’s car does look more competitive. Alonso looks short at 7/2 in a Renault struggling for pace and with the BMW’s said to be harsh on rear tyre wear the main threat maybe the Red Bulls. Webber, always pumped up on home soil, should be well up the grid and his price in this market come Sunday is likely to be a fair bit shorter. 2 points e/w Rosberg W/O Ferrari & McLaren @ 5/1 with Ladbrokes. won/lost 0 points 1 point e/w Webber W/O Ferrari & McLaren @ 10/1 with Ladbrokes, Corals. lost 2 points There are not many match bets available right now but Ladbrokes look to have fallen for Honda’s recent press release saying that the new aero update has transformed the stunningly slow RA108 into a midfield contender. Yes it should be quicker but to get to the midfield would take a minor miracle. Button has said that he thinks they should now be able to race with the Torro Rosso’s at the rear of the midfield, which according to Torro Rosso, means 14th – 15th place. Toyota are the mystery team, no one really knows if they are as good as Trulli says they are, or are they heading for another season of under achievement? Hard to say but Trulli is talking a good fight, expecting points and that is something Button is ruling out. The price might not be huge, but it certainly looks too big to ignore. 5 points Trulli to beat Button @ 4/6 with Ladbrokes. won 3.33 points |
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