Melbourne GP - Sunday Update.
In the early part of last week, there was one driver I wanted to oppose at Melbourne. Sadly everyone else had spotted that Barrichello was making the very impressive Honda look like a tractor and there was nothing of great interest to bet with. Now that he has posted a poor 16th on the grid you would think that is no chance of getting anything tasty against him, but not so! He is struggling to get used to the Michelin tyres and the braking system. He is not comfortable with the Honda sharp brakes as opposed to the more progressive Ferrari system. As a result he is locking up a lot and losing time in the braking zones. Sadly for him, Melbourne is a track that is very much a point and squirt track. Accelerate, hard brakes, hard accelerate, hard brakes again. He really will find this a struggle. The team have made the usual excuses for him, ‘traffic’, ‘used tyres’ etc. However the fact is that he is in the same car Button put on pole and he is back in 16th. That is seriously bad news for Honda as they got rid of one lead weight in the form of Sato and they do not need another in his place. 5 point Rosberg to beat Barrichello @ 1.90 with Unibet Rosberg struggled to get heat into the Bridgestones in qualifying and is a disappointing 14th on the grid. However he looks a class act and will be quick once the tyres kick in. He looks a top 10 cert and has the pace to beat a struggling Barrichello. lost 5 points 4 points Trulli to beat Barrichello @ 5/6 with Ladbrokes The Toyota’s are getting up to speed at last and they are able to use the latest Bridgestone tyres well. Trulli has a 7 place start on Barrichello in this match up on a track at which track position is very important, overtaking being so difficult. This would have been a bigger stake but for the fact that Trulli has been suffering with a heavy cold and is not fully fit. As we know, Trulli is a bit of a big girls blouse when things are not perfect and he now has a problem to blame if he is slow. Ferrari appears to be struggling to get their Bridgestones to work in the cool conditions and it is suggested that they are using a different type to that being used by Toyota and Williams. It is also suggested that the fact they have had to modify their front and rear wings to ensure they do not fall foul of the flexing regulations has affected the cars abilities. They are both using engines with race mileage on them and the team is just looking a bit flat after the good results in Sepang. Are they perhaps going backwards already? Maybe. Williams on the other hand look aggressive and confident. They have track position advantage with Webber over Schumacher and Rosberg over Massa. They should be able to score a couple of points and that could be enough to beat Ferrari. 4 points Williams to beat Ferrari at 7/4 with BlueSq. lost 4 points The point and squirt nature of Melbourne rewards engines with lots of torque and the V10 in the back Of Liuzzi’s STR has bags of it. He has stuck it on 12th place on the grid and is fancied to beat the BMW Sauber of Villeneuve who is back in 19th after an engine change. The Saubers are quick, but unreliable (50% retirement rate so far in 2006) and giving up 7 grid places here is difficult. 3 points Liuzzi to beat Villeneuve @ evens with Ladbrokes. lost 3 points Last but not least, Alonso looks a good bet to win the race. The Renault continues to be very fast and reliable. Michelin have a good tyre despite the cooler conditions. The Renaults appear to have great pulling power at the start and that suggests they have good torque and traction, which is very useful here. Alonso is a better driver than Fisichella and the team are confident that they have 3 – 4 more laps worth of fuel in the tank than Honda. Even if they can’t get past Button on lap 1, they should in the pit stops. McLaren may be the biggest threat in the race, but they have yet to show that they are any match in 2006 to the mighty Reggie. 6 points Alonso to win the GP @ 15/8 with Paddy Power, UKBetting, Centrebet. won 11.25 points |
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